The political position for the Spring budget is perhaps the most interesting and unpredictable for a number of years. Following the Conservative success in the Copeland by-election, the Government is in its strongest position that it has held for many years.
However, the narrowness of the majority in the House of Commons means that false steps could cause problems. Philip Hammond will remember the concessions forced upon George Osbourne on tax-credits.
However, if he is to make a significant impact in terms of reshaping the tax system and take some unpopular decisions, now would be the best time.
Unpopular decisions might include targeting the self-employed for higher NIC or even introducing additional charges to fund social care. Even meeting the revised and delayed surplus target will require an additional squeeze on public spending. This comes at a time when the non-ring fenced departments such as prisons, police and social care are feeling the pressure.
This Parliament has already seen about £17 billion of tax rises, expect some more to be announced in the budget although probably not publicised!